The Way of Water’ nears $900 million at the global box office

Disney James Cameron’s Avatar: The Last Airbender grossed an estimated $56 million in its second weekend in theaters, down 58 percent from its debut.

Declines in ticket sales are common for blockbuster titles, with most dropping 50% to 70%. This metric, known as the second week drop, is often used to determine whether a film will have a long life at the box office or a quick flop.

Movies with a decline of less than 50% are expected to last longer, while those with a decline of more than 70% are likely to see a steep decline in ticket sales as they gain more attention.

“Avatar: Waterway’s second weekend is right where it needs to be, so this performance will set the tone for the film’s box office journey,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

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Box office analysts noted that cold winter weather and storms caused a slowdown in domestic ticket sales over the Christmas weekend.

Additionally, international ticket sales continue to grow. In the second week, markets excluding the United States and Canada were down 43.9%. “Waterways” was always expected to account for at least 70% of the international box office, and as of Sunday, the split is at that level.

Since its Dec. 16 release, Waterway has grossed $855 million worldwide, including $254 million domestically and $601 million internationally. It is currently the fifth highest grossing film released in 2022.

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Most important Skydance’s “Top Gun: Maverick” is the current leader with $1.48 billion worldwide. of Universal Jurassic World: Dominion ($1 billion), Disney and Marvel Studios’ Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($952 million), Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru ($939 million dollars

“Waterways” is less than half of what Cameron says to be considered worthwhile. Although word-of-mouth has waned, it’s still possible that the Avatar sequels will appear in the movie.

The next big blockbuster, Disney and Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantum of Solace, doesn’t hit theaters until Feb. 17, leaving Waterway a long shot at the box office without much competition.

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“There’s no direct competition against the movie in January,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “That’s when an Avatar sequel can make up for lost ground in reaching long-term expectations.”

“We live in a world where the desire for instant gratification leads us to use the first result as the ultimate barometer of a movie’s success,” he said. “In reality, sometimes it makes sense, but sometimes it doesn’t. This is one of the last situations.”

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of Jurassic World: Dominion and Minions: The Rise of Gru.

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