International perspective: September 2022 | CBI

India overtakes Britain to become the fifth largest economy in the world

India leapfrogged Britain to become the fifth largest economy in the last three months of 2021. The ranking is based on GDP figures from the International Monetary Fund. A decade ago, India was the 11th largest economy, while the UK was 5th.

The Indian economy is forecast to grow by 7% this year, indicating strong growth in the services sector but supported by inflation. On an adjusted basis and using the dollar exchange rate on the last day of the relevant quarter, the size of the Indian economy in “nominal” cash size for the quarter ended March was US$854.7 billion. On the same basis, the UK was $816 billion.

The IMF’s own forecasts show India overtaking the UK in annualized dollar terms this year, with the Asian powerhouse trailing only the US, China, Japan and Germany. In the post-pandemic world, India’s economy is at a golden peak of consumer-led growth, which has propelled it into a leading player in global value chains. Businesses can harness this productivity of resources such as infrastructure, mobility, technology and innovation by taking advantage of India’s young demographic dividend offering.

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India will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023.

With India now the fifth largest economy, it is time that the presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is handed over to India and Delhi to host the SCO Summit in 2023 (alongside the G20 Summit later in 2023). The SCO of eight nations, which includes India, Pakistan and four former Soviet states in Central Asia. The security alliance was created to counterbalance US influence.

This year’s SCO Heads of State Summit, held in Uzbekistan, focused on agreements on regional engagement, including admitting Iran as a member, expanding SCO dialogue partners to include West and South Asia, and emphasizing the importance of regional integrity. The SCO has opened up a new horizon of multilateralism, with countries in the region willing to forge stronger ties with Russia and China.

Despite the growing membership, the focus was on the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Meeting on the sidelines of the SCO, the two leaders discussed the war in Ukraine, oil prices and the economy, and how the two nations can work together. Observers say Russia is likely to become increasingly dependent on China as a market for its oil and gas as the West seeks to price cap Russian energy resources and potentially cut its imports altogether.

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It is also worth noting that Moscow has given strong backing to Beijing in an attempt to strengthen an alliance with China amid tensions with the US following a recent visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi also met his President Putin and expressed concern about the war in Ukraine, something Putin said he understood. Learn more about the corporate response to the war in Ukraine through the CBI’s Ukraine Crisis Center.

Looking to India to host the 2023 summit, we can expect that despite recent tensions, India will ensure the participation of all SCO members, including China and Pakistan. India’s pitch to the SCO promoted regional trade connectivity and Iran’s development of the Chabahar port to avoid US sanctions, while also competing with China- and Pakistan-backed transit routes through the Gwadar region.

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HRH Queen Elizabeth II Death – Reflections from India

Following the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the Indian government held a day of national mourning across India on 11 September as a mark of respect for the late dignitary. National flags at the Red Fort and Rashtrapati Bhavan fly at half mast on National Day of Mourning. Many citizens across India paid their respects by signing the book of condolences at the British High Commission and Deputy Posts.

India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar visited the British High Commissioner’s residence in New Delhi to offer his condolences and the recently elected new President of India, Smt. Draupadi Murmu visited the UK for the state funeral.

Her Majesty’s death has prompted memorable visits to India, including three state visits in 1961, 1983 and 1997.

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