Americans head to the polls for midterms

Hello and welcome to the working week.

First, I would like to thank Rafe Uddin for guiding this newsletter as I took a look at my oldest son’s future with university open days last week. Now, back to this week and the theme of this year’s important ballot papers.

The biennial event of a nationally important American election is here with the US midterm exams. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot Tuesday. Joe Biden is so concerned that he stepped up the rhetoric by tracking down the campaign last week.

The Democrats are likely to lose control of the House and the upper house is on a knife-edge. According to Unhedged’s Rob Armstrong, this (or rather, the divided government he will create) is bad news for investors. FT columnist Janan Ganesh blames voters.

Want to learn more? This Thursday, FT journalists Edward Luce, Rana Foroohar and James Politi will meet with senior commentator Norm Ornstein for a subscriber-only event assessing US midterm results. Sign up for free today and you can submit your questions ahead of time for our panel.

You can also subscribe to the Swamp Notes newsletter, which is now free to read, which does an excellent job exploring the intersection of money and power in American politics.

Across the Atlantic, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the COP27 meeting focuses on climate change news in the days (and weeks) ahead. More than 100 world leaders will attend, including Rishi Sunak, not King Charles, after finding time in his diary.

Again, you can learn more from FT. Starting Monday, FT Live will host a series of face-to-face, virtual and hybrid discussions with leading sustainability thinkers and senior FT journalists. Each will complement the themes identified in that day’s presidential program. Submit your interest here.

Contact me by sending me a note at [email protected] or hit the reply button if you have received the newsletter by email.

economic data

Inflation is the main theme of economic news this week, with consumer price index and producer price index updates from the USA, China, Germany and Japan. Whatever the US figure, Fed chairman Jay Powell made it clear in his comments last week that his team will do whatever it takes to drive inflation away from the economy. The consensus is to create a 0.7 percent increase in the monthly US figure and an 8.1 percent annual figure.

The dismal Bank of England forecast last Thursday that the UK has entered the longest recession since the second world war sets the tone for this week’s major British economic news item: the first estimate of third-quarter GDP on Friday. This is expected to show a contraction of about 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Companies

British retail is not in a good place, with street sales falling in the UK and talk of a prolonged recession. But this week may provide some rest—and we’re not just talking about the return of free coffee. rose.

Marks and Spencer On Wednesday, it will present its first results under new management after former CEO and company life partner Steve Rowe retired over the summer. His replacement, Stuart Machin, has already taken a stand to accelerate the overhaul of the store’s land and redouble cost-cutting efforts, so the focus will likely be on current trade. Competitor Next stuck with full-year guidance last week, following early fall sales. M&S investors, who have not received dividends since November 2019, will hope Machin does as well.

WHSmith Profits are poised to jump as the world travel industry recovers from Covid lockdowns. Travel revenue from most airport stores was well beyond pre-pandemic levels in its last update in early September. Meanwhile, last week there were a few hints of a slowdown in airport duty free group Dufry’s quarterly results.

The key restriction is capacity limits at major airports, particularly London Heathrow. No doubt this will be discussed further on Monday. Ryanair reports the first half numbers. Low-cost airlines like Ryanair have to adapt to the end of low-cost air travel, where the answer is to try to get business from more expensive carriers.

The end of the season’s technical earnings news is likely to continue the gloomy mood. Lyftannounced significant job cuts, the second layoffs in recent months, as reported Monday last week. Lyft isn’t alone among tech firms that have had to tighten their respective belts, but it’s not looking good for its ride-hailing service, a smaller competitor to Uber, which also sells its car service business.

Elsewhere, we have a number of drugmaker updates. BioNTechis among several Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers that have begun raising vaccine prices amid concerns about falling demand in 2023. $47 billion next year. There are also concerns about AstraZenecareveals third-quarter figures on Thursday after the nasal version of the Covid vaccine failed trials. Better news expected from German drugs and chemicals group BayerFigures will be released on Tuesday.

Important economic and company reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect this week in terms of company reports and economic data.

Monday

• China, October trade balance figures

• Germany, September industrial production data

• Indonesia, Q3 GDP figures

• UK, Halifax home price index

• Results: BioNTech S3, Lyft S3, Ryanair H1, take two S2, Westpac Banking Inc. for your information

Tuesday

• EU, September eurozone retail sales data

• France, September trade balance figures

• Japan, September trade balance data

• UK, British Retail Consortium sales figures

• Results: Associated British Dishes for your information, Bayer S3, CNH Industrial S3, German Post DHL S3, Direct line Q3 trade update, DuPont S3, Henkel S3, Mitsubishi H1, Munich Re S3, News Inc. Q1, Nintendo S2, NTT S3, pandora S3, Trabzon Persimmon trade update, Salvatore Ferragamo S3, Suzuki Engine S2, The Walt Disney Company Q4

Wednesday

• China, October consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Mexico, October CPI inflation rate data

• Poland, monthly base rate decision

• Results: ABN Amro S3, adidas S3, wait S3, Bank of Ireland Q3 trade update, Commerzbank S3, E.ON S3, first group H1, Honda S2, ITV Q3 trade update, JD Wetherspoon Q1 trade update, Kirin Holding S3, WOMAN H1, National Australian Bank for your information, Nissan Motor Corp. H1, tata engines S2, taylor wimpey trade update, veolia Q3

Thursday

• Brazil, October IPCA inflation rate data

• Japan, October PPI inflation rate data

• Philippines, Q3 GDP figures

• UK, RICS housing price survey

• US, October CPI inflation data

• Results: 3i H1, Allianz S3, ArcelorMittal S3, AstraZeneca S3, Auto Dealer H1, B&M H1, Becton Dickinson and Company S4, stone bridge S3, Brookfield Asset Management S3, Continent S3, Credit Agricole S3, German Telecom S3, Grafton trade update, national grid H1, kinetic H1, Ralph Lauren S2, Tate & Lyle H1, WHSmith for your information

Friday

• EU, European Commission economic forecasts

• Germany, October CPI inflation rate data

• India, September industrial production figures

• Malaysia, Q3 GDP data

• Mexico, September industrial production figures

• UK, Q3 GDP and balance of trade figures

• Results: Richemont S2, SoftBank S2, Toshiba Q2

world events

Finally, here’s a summary of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• EU, eurozone finance ministers meeting ahead of tomorrow’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin) meeting of all EU finance ministers

• In the US, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in two important cases for regulators: Axon Enterprise vs. the Federal Trade Commission; and the Securities and Exchange Commission vs Cochran. If the court takes the plaintiffs’ side on the FTC and SEC, it will be easier for the parties to challenge enforcement actions in federal court before regulators complete internal proceedings.

Tuesday

• A total lunar eclipse visible in Tokyo, most of Australia and New Zealand

• Turkey and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Ankara with the new Swedish prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, to discuss Stockholm’s bid to join NATO and the extradition of those whom the Turkish government considers terrorists.

• USA midterm elections

Wednesday

• Egypt, finance ministers meet at COP27 to reflect their commitment to climate action

• The EU and the European Commission will publish recommendations to change EU fiscal rules to make them more realistic given the high public debt post-Covid-19 pandemic.

• UK, North Sea oil and gas explorer and producer Ithaca Energy is listed on the London Stock Exchange, aiming to raise up to $357 million and is testing investors’ appetite for a rare fossil fuel flotation.

Thursday

• England, Guinness World Records Day

• The US, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will launch the Joint Polar Satellite System-2 (JPSS-2), an extreme weather monitoring satellite, from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California

Friday

• Armistice Day or Remembrance Day commemorates the end of the first world war in various Commonwealth countries

• France, Paris Peace Forum begins

• Poland, Independence Day national holiday

• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in New Delhi for the US-India Economic and Financial Partnership meeting.

• USA, Veterans Day public holiday

Saturday

• Bahrain, parliamentary elections

• The United Kingdom parades for London’s new Lord Mayor from Mansion House to the Royal Courts of Justice, a 13th-century tradition to promote the financial district

Sunday

• Italy, Nitto ATP Finals kick off in Turin

• Second round of voting in the Slovenian presidential election

• England, Memorial Sunday